Signal Mechanics¶

The Technical Details of Belief and Doubt¶

⚙️ How Signals Actually Work

Understanding the mechanics behind signaling is crucial for maximizing returns and minimizing risks. This guide covers the technical details, mathematical models, and strategic considerations of the signal system.

Signal Types Deep Dive¶

Belief Signals¶

✅ Positive Conviction Mechanics

Technical Specifications:

Minimum Stake: 10 $SIGNAL
Maximum Stake: Based on reputation
Lock Period: Until milestone completion
Success Multiplier: 1.5x - 2.0x base
Failure Result: 100% burn

Multiplier Formula:

Your final multiplier is calculated by combining your base multiplier with various bonuses: time bonus (for early signals), reputation modifier (based on your XP), and phase factor (earlier phases have higher multipliers).

Doubt Signals¶

❌ Negative Conviction Mechanics

Technical Specifications:

Minimum Stake: 10 $SIGNAL
Maximum Stake: Based on reputation
Lock Period: Until milestone completion
Success Multiplier: 1.2x - 1.5x base
Failure Result: 100% burn

Multiplier Formula:

Your doubt signal multiplier combines the base rate with bonuses for going against the crowd (contrarian bonus), your track record of correct predictions (accuracy streak), and the overall risk level of the signal.

Multiplier System¶

Base Multipliers¶

Signal Type	Outcome	Base Range
Belief	Success	1.5x - 2.0x
Belief	Failure	0x (burn)
Doubt	Success	1.2x - 1.5x
Doubt	Failure	0x (burn)

Bonus Modifiers¶

🎯 Multiplier Bonuses

Time Bonus (Early Signals):

First 10% of pool: +0.5x
First 25% of pool: +0.3x
First 50% of pool: +0.1x
After 50%: No bonus

Reputation Modifier:

0-100 XP: 1.0x
100-500 XP: 1.1x
500-2000 XP: 1.2x
2000+ XP: 1.3x

Phase Factor:

Spark/Forge: 1.5x
Ignition: 1.3x
Drift: 1.2x
Orbit/Flare: 1.1x
Ascension: 1.0x

Staking Mechanics¶

The Staking Process¶

🔐 Technical Flow

Signal Initiation
When you create a signal, the system automatically:
- Validates your stake amount meets requirements
- Checks that the venture is accepting signals
- Locks your tokens in a secure escrow
- Records your signal details on the blockchain
Token Locking
- Tokens transferred to escrow
- Cannot be withdrawn
- Tracked on-chain
- Visible in UI
Settlement Trigger
- Anchor validates milestone
- Smart contract executes
- Rewards calculated
- Tokens distributed

Gas Optimization¶

Cost Considerations:

Signal creation: ~50,000 gas
Batch signals: ~30,000 gas each
Claim rewards: ~80,000 gas
Emergency exit: ~100,000 gas

Optimization Tips:

Batch multiple signals
Time for low gas periods
Use meta-transactions
Claim rewards together

Pool Dynamics¶

Signal Pool Mechanics¶

🏊 Pool Behavior

Pool Formation:

Starts empty at milestone declaration
Grows with each signal
Belief and doubt tracked separately
Ratio affects multipliers

Pool Metrics:

The signal pool tracks three key metrics:

Total Pool: The sum of all belief and doubt stakes
Belief Ratio: The percentage of the pool backing belief
Sentiment: The overall community conviction (positive for more belief, negative for more doubt)

Dynamic Adjustments:

High belief ratio → Lower belief multipliers
High doubt ratio → Lower doubt multipliers
Balanced pools → Optimal returns
Extreme ratios → Contrarian opportunities

Liquidity Considerations¶

Pool Depth Effects:

Shallow pools: Higher volatility
Deep pools: More stability
Early signals: Price discovery
Late signals: Efficient market

Advanced Signal Types¶

Conditional Signals¶

🔄 Complex Signaling

Types Available:

Time-Conditional
- "I believe IF completed by date X"
- Different multipliers for time ranges
- Partial rewards possible
Outcome-Conditional
- "I believe IF metric Y achieved"
- Specific success criteria
- Binary or graduated rewards
Sequential Signals
- Multi-milestone commitments
- Compounding rewards
- Higher risk/reward

Hedged Positions¶

Hedging Strategies:

Belief + smaller doubt position
Across similar ventures
Time-staggered entries
Phase diversification

Signal Timing¶

Optimal Entry Points¶

⏰ Timing Your Signals

Early Stage (0-20% filled):

Pros: Maximum multipliers, first-mover advantage
Cons: Limited information, high risk
Best for: High-conviction plays

Growth Stage (20-60% filled):

Pros: Some validation, decent multipliers
Cons: Still significant risk
Best for: Balanced approach

Late Stage (60-90% filled):

Pros: Maximum information, lower risk
Cons: Lower multipliers
Best for: Risk-averse strategies

Final Stage (90-100% filled):

Pros: Near-certain outcomes
Cons: Minimal returns
Best for: Safe accumulation

Risk Calculations¶

Mathematical Models¶

📊 Risk/Reward Analysis

Expected Value Formula:

To calculate if a signal is worth making, consider your expected value: multiply your estimated success chance by your potential rewards, then subtract the risk of losing your stake. A positive expected value suggests a good opportunity.

**Example:**

Calculation:

Stake: 1,000 $SIGNAL
Success chance: 70%
Multiplier: 2.0x
EV = (0.7 × 2.0 × 1,000) - (0.3 × 1,000)
EV = 1,400 - 300 = 1,100 $SIGNAL

Break-even Success Rate:

To profit from signals, you need a certain success rate based on the multiplier:

2.0x multiplier: You need at least 50% success rate to break even
1.5x multiplier: You need at least 67% success rate to break even
3.0x multiplier: You need at least 33% success rate to break even

Higher multipliers mean you can afford more failures while still profiting.

Portfolio Risk Management¶

Optimal Allocation:

No single signal > 10% of bankroll
Phase diversification
Venture diversification
Belief/doubt balance

Settlement Process¶

How Rewards Distribute¶

💰 Settlement Mechanics

Success Settlement:

Anchor validates success
Smart contract triggered
Doubt stakes burned
Belief rewards calculated
Tokens distributed
XP awarded

Failure Settlement:

Anchor validates failure
Smart contract triggered
Belief stakes burned
Doubt rewards calculated
Tokens distributed
XP adjusted

Emergency Procedures¶

Force Exit Conditions:

Venture abandonment
Smart contract issues
Governance intervention
Extended delays

Emergency Exit Cost:

90% token return
10% penalty burn
No XP gained/lost
Reputation impact

Gas and Fees¶

Transaction Costs¶

⛽ Fee Structure

Platform Fees:

Signal creation: 0.5% of stake
Reward claim: 1% of profit
Emergency exit: 10% penalty
No maintenance fees

Network Fees:

Vary by congestion
~$5-50 per transaction
Batch for savings
Time for low periods

Technical Integration¶

API Access¶

Available Endpoints:

The platform provides several ways to interact with signals programmatically:

View your signals: Access your complete signal history and active positions
Check venture signals: See all signals for a specific venture
Create new signals: Submit belief or doubt signals through the API
Track signal status: Monitor the real-time status of your signals

Smart Contract Interface¶

Key Functions:

The smart contract provides these main functions:

Create Signal: Submit a new belief or doubt signal with your chosen stake amount
Claim Rewards: Collect your earnings after successful milestone completion
Emergency Exit: Withdraw your stake early with a 10% penalty in special circumstances
Get Signal Details: View complete information about any signal

Monitoring Tools¶

Signal Tracking¶

📈 Performance Monitoring

Dashboard Metrics:

Active signals status
Pending settlements
Historical performance
ROI calculations
Risk exposure

Alert System:

Milestone deadlines
Settlement notifications
Pool movements
Opportunity alerts

Advanced Strategies¶

Arbitrage Opportunities¶

Types of Arbitrage:

Cross-venture similar milestones
Time-based mispricings
Information asymmetry
Sentiment extremes

Algorithmic Signaling¶

Automated Strategies:

Rule-based entries
Portfolio rebalancing
Risk management
Sentiment following

Common Technical Issues¶

Troubleshooting¶

🔧 Problem Resolution

Transaction Failures:

Insufficient gas
Token approval needed
Pool limits reached
Network congestion

Settlement Delays:

Anchor queue
Dispute process
Technical issues
Governance votes

Next Steps¶

Deepen Your Knowledge¶

Continue with:

Rewards System - Detailed reward structures
Due Diligence Framework - Analysis methods
Risk Management - Advanced protection

Technical Note

Signal mechanics are continuously optimized based on ecosystem data. Stay updated with the latest parameters through official channels.

Risk Reminder

Understanding mechanics doesn't guarantee profits. Always signal within your risk tolerance and never invest more than you can afford to lose.